Monday, April 7, 2008

Absence and Housing Update

Sorry for the hiatus. I'm trying to finish my PhD, and it looks like it's going to happen in about two months. So I'm busy, really busy. I just had a paper accepted at a major publication last week, and I'm writing up another one at exactly the same time. And I'm writing my thesis. And I'm still doing some lab work. And I'm editing the proof for an invited review I co-wrote with a colleague.

And I've been dealing with some major health issues with my mother. I don't have the time to go into detail here. But it's bad. I'll probably update with a post sometime later this week.

Anyway, the latest stats from NWMLS are out. Housing is basically the same as last month: down YOY by a little bit, down by more than a little bit if you look from the peak.

Seattle Bubble has the detailed round up. But I thought I'd post some of the data I've been collecting.

The local media has a tendency to focus on YOY changes when it comes to home prices. But I've argued several times that this isn't necessarily justified. This month isn't any different. The Tim gives a reporting roundup at his place that illustrates this obsession with YOY.

You can understand why. The numbers don't look too bad when you look YOY. But when you look from the peak, which was mostly last summer and early fall, things don't look as peachy:
Note that I had to change the axis from last month to -18% because of the continued decline in Pierce CO condos.

SFHs across all counties didn't change month from last month. Condos improved in King and Sno Co. And as I mention, they got worse in Pierce Co, with median price dropping -2.75% in one month to $193,475, which is way down from $231,750 set in Feb 07.


Anonymous said...

Sorry for not having anything topical to contribute, but I just want to let you know that your comment on calculatedrisk about a "Z-shaped recession" made my day. Reproduced here for all to enjoy:

I see a Z shaped recession. We will plunk along for a time in a straight line, then we will actually travel backwards in time once the super-collider the Europeans are building opens up the space time continuum this summer. Then we will continue to plod along economically until the Tulip Bubble comes along and spurs "economic growth".

Or maybe not...

Afferent Input said...

Thanks anonymous! Here is the link to the alphabet-laden post at CR that inspired my comment

Jennifer said...

Ha! I came over here on behalf of the Z-shaped recession too! I laughed so hard I ended up having to explain V and U shaped recessions to my 12 year old so I could tell her the joke.

Afferent Input said...

That's hilarious. It was a total nerd comment, and I'm glad there are other nerds out there who appreciate good nerd humor.