Thursday, March 20, 2008

S&P 500 and T-Bills

There's a lot of talk about crazy low interest rates on short-term T-bills. In fact, the 13 week T-bill hit a 50 year low. Basically what this means is that people have no confidence that they will make any return by parking their money anywhere except Federally-backed notes. Thus the low, low rates.

Interest Rate Roundup compares recent 13-week interest rates to the S&P 500. He says it seems like a leading indicator. Sort of seems true, especially if you look at the fact that the 13-weeked topped before the S&P 500 recently.

Does this mean the S&P 500 has farther to go? I have no doubt. How much farther, though, is anyone's guess. It sure looks like it could be a lot, though....

UPDATE: See Mish for more. He's had a lot of good things to say on this issue for the past few days...

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